IT’SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIME. Yes people, for those who will be watching at home, the UFC will be live tonight from Jacksonville, Florida as UFC 249 throws down in front of no fans in the Sunshine State. Not only is it the Mixed Martial Arts first show since March 14th, the promotion is back in a big way with one of the most stacked cards the sport has ever seen.
The card is headlined with a pair of titles fights, an Interim Lightweight Title bout between the two best American Americans as Justin Gaethje takes on ‘El Cucuy’ Tony Ferguson. Before those two greats square off, ‘Triple C’ Henry Cejudo faces two time former UFC and Strikeforce champion Dominick Cruz. The card also has notable bouts such as Ngannou vs. Rozenstriuk, Cowboy vs. Pettis II, and Hardy vs. DeCastro. However, one bout that stands out for the wrong reason is the Middleweight bout between Uriah Hall and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, which was cancelled after Jacare and two of his cornermen tested positive for COVID-19. The positive test results sparked headlines and opinions alike, but however this card will still go on.
After the news that the Florida State Athletic Commission is still allowing this fight to go on is a positive sign for not only fans, but also fellow sports leagues. Simply speculation here but I think that since the organization is powering through the positive test, they are taking the heat off other organizations about how to deal with the testing process, and how to deal with positive tests going forward.
Below are some notable bouts and how I think they are going to turn out. I went from the bottom up in terms of fight order.
ESPN Prelims:Luque vs. Price
The 8:00 ESPN prelims kick off with a fan favorite at 170 pounds and Welterweights Vicente Luque and Niko Price match up. The fighters are currently trending in two separate directions as Price is coming off of a highlight reel up-kick knockout of James Vick, while Luque is coming off of a humbling loss to the kindest person in the sport Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson. Both fighters are very creative on the feet and are expected to put a show on for the entire 15. Make sure to get those TV’s on from the jump. I think if I were to chose a winner it would be Vicente Luque. I think Luque is a more experienced fighter and will look to bounce back strong off the Wonderboy loss. If Luque is victorious, I think it will be by decision.
ESPN Prelims: Pettis vs. Cowboy II
Over seven years later, former standout lightweights Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis, and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone will square off this time at Welterweight. Both fighters are on 2+ fight losing streaks and both are in search for a big win. Cowboy looks to avenge his embarrassment done by the hands of Conor McGregor, while Showtime looks to hopefully get back trending upwards as he nears Free Agency. Showtime won the first bout with a kick to the body. Look for this fight to remain standing, however I do not think it will go that long. If the fight does however go to the ground, I give the nod to Cowboy. As a fan, I am pulling for Cowboy, however his last two fights leave me with little to no hope with an experienced fighter like Anthony Pettis hungry for a victory.
Prediction: Pettis 2nd round TKO.
ESPN+ Main Card: Yorgan DeCastro vs. Greg Hardy
This fight between two heavyweight titans kicks off the main card as former NFL All Pro Greg Hardy looks to get back in the win column against the undefeated Yorgan DeCastro. The Greg Hardy experiment in the UFC has been relatively positive so far. Hardy has been no chump so far, and coming off a humbling decision loss to Alexander Volkov, he looks to hand DeCastro his first loss. DeCastro comes off a walk-off KO of then undefeated Justin Tafa in Tafa’s home country of Australia. I expect this fight to be a stand up affair with each fighter just one punch away from being unconscious. I do not see this fight going the distance on paper, but with that being said crazier things have happened. I think DeCastro is the more technical striker, and the more composed fighter which is essential when fighting at such a heavy weight class. I look to see DeCastro look to counter the sometimes wild exchanges of Greg Hardy and win by TKO.
Prediction: DeCastro by TKO.
ESPN+ Main Card: Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rosenstruik
While we navigate this COVID-19 pandemic, along with Stipe Miocic’s eye issues and the anticipated DC vs. Stipe III, arguably the two best Heavyweights square off as Francis Ngannou and 10-0 Jairzinho Rosenstruik face off at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Both fighters are outstanding strikers that specialize in kickboxing. Both fighters are knockout artists with the winner asserting themselves as the probable number one contender for the heavyweight bout after whatever is becoming of this Stipe and DC situation. Dana White mentioned the possibility of stripping Miocic if his eye is not yet healed. It will be interesting to see where the division does move on from here, but if this quarantine is helping Dana White with anything it is the amount of time he has to figure out what is next for this division. Theres a lot of good guys in this division and I think it should not be as stagnant as it has been in recent memory. I like the two heavyweight striker match ups here. In terms of prediction, I gotta give it to Francis Ngannou here. His last 2 fights were first round finishes, he is the scariest man in the division, and has big fight experience, something Rozenstruik does not have. I think Ngannou has been improving with every fight since his loss to now champion Miocic, and I think he will be victorious by second round KO.
ESPN+ Main Card Co-Main event, UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Henry Cejudo(C) vs. Dominick Cruz.
Triple C, Henry ‘The Messenger’ Cejudo looks to defend his Bantamweight title for the second time as he faces off against the consensus GOAT of 135 in Dominick Cruz. Cruz is a two time former UFC champion, along with a belt in Strikeforce as well. Cruz hasn’t fought since getting picked apart by Cody Garbrandt in a fight over 3 years ago, while Cejudo has gotten two belts since that last fight and has climbed up the GOAT conversation in his own right. Cruz’s height for 135, along with his amazing footwork might present some issue for Cejudo at first, but I look for him to be moving forward in this fight, giving Cejudo a chance to show off either his Golden Gloves Boxing accolades, or his Olympic champion wrestling ability. I expect Cejudo to have to weather an early storm like he did in the Moraes fight, but I expect him to eventually close the distance and show why he is one of the greatest combat athletes we have seen, I expect the Cejudo narrative to move forward and the King of Cringe to successfully defend his Gold going the distance. I think the long layoff, along with the obstacles of training through this pandemic to be too much for Cruz in the end.
Prediction: Cejudo by unanimous decision.
ESPN+ Main Card, Main Event. UFC Interim Lightweight Title Fight: Tony Ferguson(IC) vs. Justin Gaethje
This fight has one thing written all over it: violence. Both fighters are the two best American born UFC lightweights on the planet, and amongst travel issues and all the drama that has gone into this card, we are left with a fight that should be one for the ages. The winner gets a chance at Khabib Nurmagomedov around July if not the early Fall, and these fighters are looking to also keep this fight on the feet. Tony Furgson hasn’t lost in 12 UFC fights, while Gaethje looks for a fourth straight KO as he looks to get his hands on the UFC lightweight champion. After constant deliberation in my head throughout the week, I am giving the nod to Justin Gaethje for several reasons. Gaethje has not had to deal with as many delays and setbacks due to the pandemic as Furguson has had. Remember, Furguson was supposed to fight back on April 18th and was even 155 over two weeks ago via Instagram. Also, he has been preparing so long for a guy like Khabib, such a dangerous grappler and submission artist. Furguson is known for giving out punishment, but can be known for getting hit with a couple good shots throughout his most recent fights. I think Furguson will eventually get too comfortable during the fight, and Gaethje is just too powerful to do that.
Prediction: Gaethje by 3rd round KO.
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